Brandon Johnson’s victory elicited the expected euphoria from most liberal, progressive, and left observers of the American political scene. Having watched several generations of “reform” mayors, many of them Black, I have some skepticism. I expressed it in a note to a long-time Chicago community organizer friend of mine. Our exchange:

Mike 4/18/23): “I am very nervous about the capacity of those who elected Johnson to respond to what the business community is going to do if he attempts anything they view as threatening their interests. And if he doesn’t do that, I’m nervous about what that will do to the morale of those who supported him.”

Jane (4/19/23): “Your concerns are well-taken, and in addition, finding the $$ to do what he proposes will be a very heavy lift. [Chicago is financially constrained.] Maybe a head tax on employees of Chicago companies (although that has been proposed before and could never get enough support when push came to shove). The problem is, to some extent, Chicago (and Illinois) is surrounded by states with much lower taxes, and lower cost of living, and companies do relocate claiming that’s the reason. Indiana is literally next to Chicago, and Wisconsin is about 60 miles away. It’s almost funny, I have done literally no Chicago door knocking for a candidate since 2008, because we always get shipped to Indiana, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

“[T]his was to some extent a contrast between public sector unions and private sector unions (who mostly sat it out, but some endorsed Vallas, [including] Fraternal Order of Police, of course, but also some building trades. Chicago Federation of Labor sat it out, of course).

“AFSCME usually doesn’t endorse, but this time they endorsed Johnson.

“It was also interesting to see which wards went for which candidates in the primary and then the runoff. Initially, Johnson won only the North Lakefront liberal wards, and also an area called the Milwaukee corridor, which is a combination of Latinos and more white liberals (mostly young). He took no Black wards, not even his own. They were won by the outgoing mayor, Lori Lightfoot. Once Lightfoot was eliminated, then the Black wards went for Johnson. Voter turnout was lighter than predicted in the older Latino wards on the South and Southwest sides. In the Latino community, support for Johnson was high among the younger, Democratic Socialists of America type activists, much less among older folk.

“There was also a huge generational aspect to this race. Even once the election was between Johnson and Vallas, a large number of older Black elected officials and retired elected officials endorsed Vallas, including half of the sitting Black alderpeople. These were people with very solid credentials as civil rights activists/defenders of the Black community. Most people think this reflects Johnson’s support for defund the police – a mistake that many people made, but no elected officials did who were listening to their constituents on the South and West sides – as well as the teachers union’s refusal to go back to in-person school after vaccinations became available.

“His big challenges will be getting more money for the schools, when they already spend $29,400 per student (but they do need more), and dealing with the street crime issue in the moment, which everyone on all sides agrees is critical.” 

“Johnson is a really good campaigner (he is my County Board representative, so I’ve been following him for a while). He is one of the Chicago Teachers Union leaders who have energized their ground game — which certainly had a big role in his victory — and worked well with some community organizations that also did door-knocking and voter turnout…[O]n crime, he proposes to hire 200 more police detectives (or rather promote them from the ranks) so as to clear more violent crimes. No one objects to that. On education, he proposes to limit standardized testing. Everyone likes that. He wants to spend more on violence prevention workers — everyone seems fine with that.

“His big challenges will be getting more money for the schools, when they already spend $29,400 per student (but they do need more), and dealing with the street crime issue in the moment, which everyone on all sides agrees is critical. He put his foot in it this week by going soft on a mob of teens who more or less rioted downtown last Saturday, including shootings… Teens are already supposedly planning a flash mob at a mall near me for this weekend. Oh great. They always end up with people getting hurt, and stores being trashed.”

The Chicago Tribune story fills in some background: “One warm evening last July, SEIU Local 73 President Dian Palmer got a call out of the blue from Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who wanted to meet.

“The two had interacted during labor actions, including the longest strike in Local 73′s history the year before. But they weren’t close, so the call took her by surprise. The two met at Park Tavern near Palmer’s Chicago office and sat on the outside patio, where Johnson said he was considering a run for mayor.

“‘Of course, my No. 1 questions were: What is your platform and what is your path to victory?’ Palmer said.

“The meeting was so intense that, as the night went on, they realized neither of them had ordered anything. Palmer felt bad for taking up a table and just ordering ice water, so they shared a pretzel and continued the dialogue.

“I walked away from that meeting thinking, ‘Hmmm, he might have something here,’ she recalled.”

Pay Attention to A. Philip Randolph

Some, especially public employee, unions, and a whole new generation of left and progressive “grassroots” organizations have a capacity to mobilize voters. They also lack the capacity to do what former Sleeping Car Porters Union President and civil rights movement leader A. Philip Randolph said was required of those seeking significant social change:

“At the banquet table of life, there are no reserved seats. You get what you can take and keep what you can hold. If you can’t take anything, you won’t get anything. And if you can’t hold anything, you won’t keep anything. And you can’t take anything without organization.”

Any Johnson attempts to raise the revenue required for some of the substantial reforms he proposes will precipitate a strong reaction from Chicago’s business community: “The action is in the reaction.” Strategic people power planners seek a reaction they believe their forces can withstand and overcome. In so doing, they demonstrate their power to both adversaries and skeptics who believe “you can’t fight City Hall.”

What will Johnson and his allies do when businesses threaten to move or shut down a part of its operations in Chicago? Or when the cops stage a slow-down, sick-out and refusal to enforce the law?

Organizations that have the capacity to mobilize may or may not have the capacity to enforce what they might win, either in an election, or as the result of a strike. No place better teaches this lesson than Chicago, where the old year-round, regularly-on-the-scene Daley Machine withstood Martin Luther King, Jesse Jackson and the civil rights movement, strong community organizations and numerous electoral challenges. With a combination of patronage and services to constituents delivered by precinct-captains, it had deep roots in Chicago’s lower income communities. What provides that depth among the people for Johnson and his supporters? The lesson of that difference remains to be learned.

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For further reading:

Chicago Tribune and the New York Times

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