In the national elections of March 2018 the Five Star Movement (M5S) got 32.7% of the votes because of a strong showing in the south thanks to the promise of “citizenship income”[2] for the unemployed and because much of the left electorate was disaffected from the Partito Democratico (PD). This disaffection with the PD came because the Renzi government, with the passage of the Jobs Act and the rejection of the political role of unions made it clear that the world of work was no longer an important reference point. The second place party was the League (La Lega), whose base is no longer limited to the north. The party got 17.4% of the votes using slogans like “Italians First”, and calling for more security for citizens (despite statistics reporting a decrease in crimes). La Lega wanted to block immigration from outside the European Union (already severely limited by the provisions of the previous Gentiloni government) and the restoration of retirement pensions abolished by the restrictive measures of the unelected technical government of Mario Monti in 2011.

The M5S, the first party in percent of votes, was tasked by the President of the Republic with forming a government. After ascertaining the unavailability of the PD as a coalition partner after several attempts, M5S turned to the League, a right-wing formation with which M5S shares a polemic against the political establishment (in particular against the economic privileges of parliamentarians), the rejection of economic constraints imposed by the European Union (EU)) and the defense of national sovereignty (against the “Brussels bureaucrats”). The agreement was ratified with a “government contract” that indicates the issues on which government activity should be concentrated. The agreement provided that the leaders of the two parties would take two top positions in the new government: Luigi Di Maio of M5S at the Ministry of Labor and Matteo Salvini of La Lega at the Ministry of the Interior.

After the formation of the government it has become apparent that while the League is increasingly successful in dealing with “ideological” issues like immigration, the M5S has not been able to deliver on welfare policies like “citizenship income” or early retirement because of the serious economic situation, marked by the huge public debt that binds Italy to market financing. Hence the controversy with the EU whose opposition to the enlargement of the Italian public debt would prevent the Italian government from providing for the less affluent!

The M5S, in the name of environmentalism and fearful of offering fuel to endemic corruption in the country, looks suspiciously at public works and infrastructure projects. M5S has refused to nominate Rome to host the summer Olympics or Torino for the winter. Above all M5S is against the TAV (High Velocity Train), which would run between Torino and Lyon, France. This section of track has been the site of very tough clashes with environmentalists. M5S opposes the TAV and the trans-Adriatic gas pipeline (favored by the US government because it would allow the European market access to the natural gas of the Caspian Sea, and therefore not be dependent on Russia). But these policies mean blocking public investments that could boost the economy and employment. In October the Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT) stated that the Italian economy is steady, and tensions between Italy and the European Union on the issue of the expansion of public debt demanded by the Italian government and the commitment of Brussels to policies of economic austerity (moreover never seriously pursued by Italy) are growing. Result: on November 25, 2018 the League is polling at 36.2% (+ 18.8% from March 8, this is thanks also to the drying up of support for the Forza Italia, the party of Silvio Berlusconi), while the M5S fell to 27.7% (- 5%). In contrast, the Partito Democratico, torn by internal conflicts and still unable to build an effective opposition in Parliament and in the country, is slightly down in the polls from the 17% received in the elections in March.

Tensions within the government also grow between the League, pressed by the industrial groups to boost investment and block welfare policies, and the M5S. This tension hinders proposals for tax amnesty advanced by the League (League also proposes amnesty for construction abuses in Ischia, where the earthquake has recently destroyed buildings and human lives). M5S has blocked Salvini’s safety decree (later approving it with some stomach ache, despite deep concerns over the unconstitutionality of the treatment of non-EU citizens). Any economic reforms seem difficult to achieve. This stalemate drives Di Maio and Salvini to sound the campaign themes that resonated for them in the March elections.

The government’s goal seems to be to use the European Parliament elections of May 2019, to dissolve a series of political knots. The first is: if and how Europe will change under the blows of Trump, Putin and populist parties. The second, if M5S and Lega will consolidate the victory of March 2018 and whether there will be a significant imbalance in support for the two parties (with the implicit caveat that a big imbalance between the two parties can push the party that prevails to try to translate their success in the European elections policy into domestic Italian political success).

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[1] Giallo (yellow) and Verde (green) refer to the ballot symbol colors of the Five Star Movement and the League, the coalition partners who govern Italy.

[2] Reddito Minimo Nazionale – Would provide a basic income to all Italian citizens

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